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Last updateSat, 29 Jul 2017 12am

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Defaults is spreading outside commodities

The latest research from Deutsche Bank AG found that there are already signs of contagion in junk-rated debt outside of the commodities space, as evidence that the defaults of Quicksilver Inc, American Apparel LLC and Aeropostale Inc, which are from the retail sector.

Looking back, peaks in default rates shows the potential for more pervasive corporate stress.  In the early 2000s dotcom crisis and 2008 financial crisis, the default rate were higher in those particular sectors.  However, the default rate for junk bonds excluding those sector also increased significantly as shown below:

Would this time be different - that because of low interest rate, the defaults would stay limited to commodity sector?

Probably not with emerging credit pressures in retail and capital goods sectors, as shown below:


Bloomberg, Tracy Alloway, 2016-05-23, "Defaults Have Already Spread Outside Commodities"